You may have heard that laying horses is an easy way to earn money and profit, however nothing can be further from the truth. Laying horses is much harder than most people say it is, and I know because I’ve personally lost thousands of dollars by laying horses. After testing various old and new lay betting systems, I’ve finally settled on the ones that consistently rake in profits.

Anyone can lay horses today, especially with the rise of online betting exchanges. However, betting exchanges are also the death traps for many new and inexperienced gamblers, who pour in their cash and watch it flow into the hands of experienced gamblers who have powerful betting systems that work. By playing the role of a bookmaker, many lay bettors are profiting wildly from these newbie gamblers today.

Lay Genius is one horse laying system that is relatively new in the market. Initially, I did not have the intention to buy it at first, because I already have a successful laying system that is working well for me. However, after hearing many fellow professional Betfair traders giving me good recommendations about Lay Genius, and with so much hype surrounding Lay Genius, I decided to buy Lay Genius to see it for myself.

After reviewing the guide and the spreadsheet inside Lay Genius, I was very excited. Lay Genius did not look like it is simply a system for selecting horses to lay. Lay Genius is an overall strategy and method to select the very bad favorites. At first glance, the Lay Genius’s concepts appear simple and seem profitable from my experience. Contained inside the guide is the Lay Genius system itself, along with its spreadsheet that requires you to regularly make inputs to it. The Lay Genius spreadsheet will then automatically tell you which horse is the best one to lay. If you are a beginner in betting exchange betting, there is a section that fully explains how betting exchanges work and the general concepts of odds, backing and laying. It is great for beginners but obviously not so much for me. Learn to get free £20 Betfair amount too, even though I knew that one too. The added Bet-Tracker is really great though. Having a formulated spreadsheet to automatically keep track of your bets is a great time saver and find out whether what you are doing is working.

It was time to test out Lay Genius, and I decided to pit Lay Genius head-on against the most profitable laying system that I was currently using. After running both systems for a few weeks, the Lay Genius actually had a slightly higher strike rate than the current laying system that I was using! I cannot necessarily conclude that the Lay Genius is better though, since the amount of testing might be too little, and my current laying system has been working for years.

Take note that the Lay Genius does require some effort on your part to make it work, very little effort though. You will responsible to collect the information to input into system. Don’t worry as it shouldn’t take more than 30 minutes of your day. Do remember to keep your expectations in check too. From my experience, there is no horse system with a 100% strike rate, do not believe those claims.

Finally, make sure that you have the discipline to follow the Lay Genius system too. Never lay based on your emotions and greed, even though you might think that you “would have” made more money if you have had put in more money. The Lay Genius is a mathematical system that has already calculated the maximum probabilities of winning and minimum probability of losing for you.

Currently priced at £46 ($88), Lay Genius is truly value for money and very well under-priced in my opinion, considering its real profit potential. In the past, below-average laying systems would appear on the internet and get all hyped up, claiming to be revolutionary and sell for £100 and above. Take one look at their membership areas and you will be absolutely disgusted. Do give Lay Genius a try if you are serious about creating an income on Betfair.

Kenneth Lim is a mathematician who has a passion for studying gambling systems. As of today, he has identified several very profitable gambling systems that are generating a good amount of profit.
He runs a website at http://www.review-best.com/laygeniusreview.htm where he exposes the lay system scams and identifies the 2 best legitimate horse laying systems on the web.

At one time or another, the sales pitch of a handicapping system has sucked all of us in. We just couldn’t resist the promise of big returns for a small investment and bought some product. The system usually had us doing hours of mathematical calculations or looking for some implausible angle that arose maybe once a month. Cash some tickets; rip some up, either way we might be little or no better off. My goal in this writing is to steer the reader away from future awful purchases and shed some light on what to really expect from systems.

First off, if you are an experienced handicapper then you will probably not learn anything new from a system. Horseplayers have had access to all of the literary works the subject of horse racing and handicapping for years. Some have read almost all of them, and through this labor of love have schooled themselves in the philosophies on form, class, speed, pace and the many angles that apply to them. If you are one of them, I congratulate you, but this type of handicapper does not represent the masses.

Just about all systems will work, in some way, at some time and in some situation. If you are a novice handicapper or an intermediate that is just not the type to dive in to the immense library of books on the subject, a system might be for you. Which one? That’s a question with many possible answers. The market is flooded and a small fortune could be invested before the first wager is even placed, so I’ll try to offer a little insight to those of you who want some quick action rather than a recommendation for years of study.

Sometimes we are all too quick to kill the messenger when they don’t deliver the instant results we’re seeking, so be patient. When researching a system avoid the over zealous sales pitch, the “My system picks 50 to 1 long shots”. These windfalls do happen, but the expectations are a little much for anyone to live up to. I do not want to label any product as a “scam”, because I feel that many of these products are created with the best of intentions, but you will now it when you see it. If it sounds unattainable it probably is.

Prefer a system that is geared more towards angles and handicapping factors than mathematical calculations. Systems based on the latter sometimes miss out on the fact that horses are living, breathing creatures influenced by intentions of the living, breathing humans behind them. This is not to say that math isn’t valuable in handicapping. It is especially serviceable in trying to predict speed and pace scenarios, and in betting systems based on wagering structure, but avoid the systems that try to put everything into a neat little foolproof number.

Lastly, look for a system that, at least, offers a money back guarantee and throws in some free bonuses. If the author or creator is willing to stand by his or her product in this way and also offers some other valuable information, it dramatically increases their creditability. Any extra tools that you can add to your handicapping arsenal will increase your knowledge and make the system a bargain. If you are interested in Thoroughbred handicapping systems, stop by The Racing Report and read the reviews of some of the most trusted and well-priced systems on the market.

Carl Wagner is a regular contributor to The Racing Report where you can read book reviews, articles and the free Daily Horse Watch. Signup to the free membership and receive emails with interesting handicapping information, discounts on new products and news regarding Thoroughbred horse racing. If you are wagering on Aqueduct, Belmont Saratoga or Finger Lakes purchase Daily Selections or The Weekly Horse Report, complete with trainer angles, key races and a summary of the weeks events.
http://theracingreport.googlepages.com

Perhaps there are many horse racing systems that promise to make you thousands of dollars. But have you ever heard of a horse racing system that is proven to make many thousands of dollars every year and then adds a qualifier to the statement?

What kind of qualifier would a horse racing system require to make it different and perhaps better? Can’t anyone make a profit with the right horse racing system? Perhaps. But there is one horse racing system that carries a qualifier of 4 little words that gave me pause.

I will ask the question again: What kind of qualifier would a horse racing system have to have to make it different and perhaps better than all the other horse racing systems out there? These 4 little words mentioned about a horse racing system made me stop and think. Here they are: “in the right hands.” Surprised? Does it make you wonder if you have what it takes to make this horse racing system work? Baloney!

I think any good horse racing system worth its salt should work in not only the “right hands,” but the “wrong hands” as well. You see, horse racing is largely about numbers. A good horse racing system has to deal with some type of numbers. So a good horse racing system plays the numbers, at least in my book.

This is precisely why a good horse racing system has nothing to do with what you have in the way of talent or experience. A good horse racing system puts a life-changing monthly income within easy reach of anyone who works the horse racing system.

If that’s true, why haven’t more people made a fortune with their horse racing system? Good question. Truth is, not every horse racing system is a winner, just like horses. You have to do your homework and find a good horse racing system based on sound principles.

Then what? Well, you should select a horse racing system and try it out a little to see if it’s a horse racing system that fits with your way of thinking about betting on horse racing.

Experiment a little to learn the horse racing system. Place some bets with play money for the first few races to see if the horse racing system works.

And here’s an important key for trying out any new horse racing system with phony bets to begin with: When the horse racing system produces some winners, you will be tempted to place live bets right away. Resist the temptation to implement the new horse racing system with live bets as soon as it starts to deliver winners. Wait until the horse racing system fails to deliver a winner. THEN go live with a live bet using the horse racing system. The odds will be more in your favor!

No matter what horse racing system you use, don’t bet the family farm on any one race. Find a horse racing system that works and then work the horse racing system in a sensible, balanced way. Use your horse racing system to bet another day.

Riley Wells is a writer who reviews various products including horse racing systems You can find the best horse racing system that Riley recommends as the best one
at http://www.zcorps.com Find out
here how to safely turn $15 into $157 this
afternoon with only 5 secure bets.

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WELCOME & CONTENTS

——————–

Hello again, and welcome back to your fortnightly newsletter from the

offices of TrainerTrackStats. Once again the (very wet) weather has been playing havoc with the fixtures programme, but there’s still been plenty of action since I last wrote to you.

In this issue:

- Review since last newsletter

- System angle: “Grand National Follow Up”

- Coming Soon: TrainerFlatStats

- The TTS Joke…

- “You Might Be Interested In…”

- Tomorrow’s qualifiers

——————————

REVIEW SINCE LAST NEWSLETTER

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With less than three weeks to go until the start of the Cheltenham Festival, pretty much all of the big trials have now been run, and – if anything – the waters seem muddier than ever.

For the main events, there seem to be numerous contenders with legitimate chances.

Firstly, looking at the Champion Hurdle, the form of Detroit City was again upheld by Straw Bear winning a muddling affair at Wincanton in the Kingwell Hurdle. I was there last Saturday, and did a good few quid on the second horse, Afsoun. The time of the race though was slower than the novice hurdle over the same trip, won impressively by a David Pipe inmate, Osana. (Both Osana and Song Of Songs, who finished behind him, look horses to follow at Aintree rather than Cheltenham).

So if Detroit City looks good in light of Straw Bear’s performance, what of the Irish contenders? Both Mac’s Joy and Harchibald capitulated in the face of a relentless gallop set up front by Champion Chaser, Newmill. Although Mac’s Joy was not beaten far, and a stiffer stamina test will suit, it must be disappointing to connections of both horses that they were beaten by an animal who won’t even run in the race!

It’s still difficult for me to pick the winner, as the most likely candidate, Detroit City, has a welter statistical burden to overcome, being a winner of last season’s Triumph Hurdle and, therefore, a five year old. Increasingly, form says he will win, but I can’t ignore the stats, so will probably try Hardy Eustace and Macs Joy each way.

The Champion Chase picture has improved over the past fortnight, with big prep runs from Well Chief and the aforementioned Newmill.

Well Chief had been off the track for almost two years before returning in style, thrashing Ashley Brook (Voy Por Ustedes unseated and Foreman pulled up). Assuming there is no bounce factor (i.e. the exertion leading him to underperform next time), WC looks a worthy favourite.

Of those in behind, Foreman looks better on a flat track, as we saw when he won at Aintree last year, turning the Arkle tables with Voy Por Ustedes, while the last named remains something of an enigma. Clearly a very good horse, and from a top stable, we have learned little in a predictable second to Kauto Star, a predictable beating of Oneway, and an unpredictable unseating (he is normally a very safe conveyance) behind Well Chief.

At the prices, and with the chance that Well Chief could bounce, I’d want to oppose him, though I’d be delighted to see him crowned champion, as I think he’s a special horse. So, while my heart says Well Chief, my wallet says Voy Por Ustedes. The record of Arkle winners in the Champion Chase is impressive, and this fellow will be ready to run for his life on the day.

One other horse worth a mention is Nickname. His trainer says he will only run if the ground is soft or softer, and he is in to run on Sunday in Ireland. He could yet prove to be a fly in the punting ointment.

Moving on to the World Hurdle, this race revolves around one horse. Black Jack Ketchum is his name, and there are two schools of thought on his ability. The first says he is a good horse, who has been placed shrewdly by his trainer (Jonjo O’Neill), and who was finally found out against other good horses last time. The other says that he is a very good horse, and he didn’t run to his form last time. I have to concede to being a fence sitter, as I can see the merit of both arguments.

As a punter, I will not be rushing to take the 7/4, of that I am certain. So where is the value? Well, clearly his usurper from last time, Blazing Bailey, must figure. Placed behind Detroit City in last year’s Triumph Hurdle, he’s proved himself a gutsy horse, and a thorough stayer this year, and his trainer (Alan King) knows what it takes to win this race, having done the business last year with My Way De Solzen. It’s interesting to note that his trainer reckons he should have won the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot (where he finished only fourth to Mighty Man, having had a very troubled run).

Of the others, Inglis Drever and Mighty Man have their chances but wouldn’t be for me and – further down the lists – Overstrand would be of interest if taking his chance. He’s one tough and genuine customer, and runner up in the Tote Gold Trophy followed by victory a week later in a big handicap at Ascot last weekend. There are question marks over both his class and whether he stays but, at 40/1, he might be worth a little speculative wager.

Finally, in the Gold Cup, I have nailed my colours to the mast here on numerous previous occasions, and I see no reason to desert the Exotic Dancer ship now. Kauto Star is clearly the form horse, but he has a tendency to clatter a fence or two, and may well get found out over the twenty-six furlongs and twenty-two fences of the race. (I’m still talking through my pocket, having backed him when he came down early in the Champion Chase last year..!)

Elsewhere on the likely starters list, there are a number of Irish horses who have a squeak, notably last year’s winner War Of Attrition, and In Compliance, but it has always been, and remains, Exotic Dancer for me.

A novelty punt on Kingscliff might reward small stakes each way: he has two types of running, but – if he gets out of his stable on the right side – could give you a run at triple figure odds (119/1 as I write) on Betfair currently.

Next time, I’ll look at the novice races and also the handicaps, though I have to concede that I’m no expert on the latter….!

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SYSTEM ANGLE: Grand National Follow Up

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Now that the weights have been published, it seems a very good time to review the Aintree Grand National picture from a stats angle. To recap, these are the reasons it is a good stats race:

- No other race has so many horses lining up

- No other race is run over such an extreme distance

- No other race has the Aintree fences (with the exception of races at the track of course)

- No other race offers such much prize money and kudos (attracting some very classy horses)

- No other race is guaranteed to be run at a frantic pace from the outset

- No French race is run over anything like this distance (French breds don’t stay the trip!)

The stats angle for the race says to follow the logic. This means that we’re looking for:

- a proven stayer (won over 3m+);

- a reliable jumper (less than two falls in the last two seasons), and at least into his third season jumping;

- a horse that has won in a field of at least 12;

- a horse mature enough to win the race, but not past his best (aged 8-12);

- a horse in the handicap proper, but carrying 11stone or less (i.e. scheduled to carry 10-00 to 11-00);

- a horse with proven class (placed in a Grade 3 chase or better);

- a horse who was not bred in France (some have run close, none have won…);and,

- Pay special attention to the Irish (especially if they’ve been hurdling!); and,

- Favour horses who have jumped the Aintree fences

This makes the 119 entries truncate to a rather more manageable twelve (I previously quoted eight horses, due to some confusion on my part about French bred horses. If a horse has only one French parent, then it is not classed as a French bred, hence some horses have been reinstated). Seven of the eight I previously mentioned remain (Numbersixvalverde has to carry 11-03 and is discounted on this basis):

Point Barrow - Irish National winner off top weight

Graphic Approach - Run some eye catching races for his shrewd trainer who went close with Mely Moss

Naunton Brook - Sound form, safe jumper, trainer won with Earth Summit. Entered in Red Sq Gold Cup on 17th Feb

Cloudy Bays - Excellent form in Ireland, has been running in hurdles, but may have to carry too much weight?

Dun Doire - Cheltenham Festival winner for very shrewd trainer, hampered when unseated last year, been running in hurdles races since Grand National ‘06

Garvivonnian - An old friend of mine, races prominently and jumps well, so will give a run for money. Doubtful stayer though, alas.

Silver Birch - my big ante-post wager last year, before things went inexplicably wrong. Has been nursed back to form by lesser known Irish trainer and finished 2nd in a cross country race at Punchestown last weekend.

To these we now add:

Little Brick: Much hyped recruit, who won well at Wincanton last weekend. To my eye, he looked a very good jumper but a doubtful stayer.

Longshanks: No real negatives, and from a stable who has won the race before. Has jumped the Aintree fences twice before in shorter races.

Nil Desperandum: Moved to Venetia Williams this season, and has been backed for the race.

Puntal: Ran an unbelievable race last year to finish 6th, after 400 days off the track. He’s a bit fitter this year, so could run very well.

Jack High: Former Betfred (aka Whitbread) Gold Cup winner, who was near the top of ante-post lists last year.

So, this is my Dirty Dozen for the race. Some obvious contenders here, and hopefully some interesting dark horses. I have a number of betfair wagers in the triple digit odds, so let’s hope one of them obliges!

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COMING SOON: TRAINERFLATSTATS / NAG-NAG-NAG

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Another quick plug for TrainerFlatStats, which is in development and is progressing well. As the name suggests, it’s the same concept but for the flat turf season beginning on 31st March (a very late start this year).

As I mentioned last letter, I’m also planning to introduce a site where TTS / TFS customers and non-customers alike can discuss the burning racing issues of the day, catch up on news stories, and rip me to shreds for my abject blog ramblings.

This site now has a name, though it’s not yet operational.

Step forward, nag-nag-nag.co.uk, the home of racing ranting! (And, hopefully, slightly more informed, insightful and instructive discussions).

I will of course keep you appraised of developments as time passes.

More in the next newsletter…

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THE TTS JOKE

————-

A group of 3rd, 4th and 5th graders, accompanied by two female teachers, went on a field trip to the local racetrack to learn about thoroughbred horses and the supporting industry, but mostly to see the horses.

When it was time to take the children to the bathroom, it was decided that the girls would go with one teacher, and the boys would go with the other. The teacher assigned to the boys was waiting outside the men’s room when one of the boys came out and told her that none of them could reach the urinal.

Having no choice, she went inside, helped the boys with their pants, and began hoisting the little boys up one by one - holding onto their “tools” to direct the flow away from their clothes.

As she lifted one, she couldn’t help but notice that he was unusually well endowed. Trying not to show that she was staring, the teacher said, “You must be in the 5th.” “No, ma’am,” he replied, “I’m the jockey riding Silver Arrow in the 4th, but thanks for the lift.”

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“YOU MIGHT BE INTERESTED IN…”

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Betting School:

Some of you may have heard of this subscription newsletter service, which is available in either email or physical (snail) mail format.

The content is no nonsense and unbiased, and each issue takes a view on a number of racing products and services, as well as looking at strategies and techniques to improve your punting.

Although the predominant focus is on horseracing, there are also occasional features on other sports, such as last year’s World Cup Special.

The newsletter has been going since April 2005, and I have been a subscriber for a few months now, and really enjoy its approach (although I don’t always agree with the opinions – nothing wrong with that!)

You can get a free trial copy by clicking the link below:

http://www.betting-school.com/amember/go.php?r=1680

If you like it, you’ll find details of how to sign up at the same place.

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TOMORROW’S TRAINERTRACKSTATS RUNNERS

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Well done if you backed Kickahead today. We had to sweat in the Stewards’ Room but a nice 11/1 winner for TTS followers!

Below are tomorrow’s TTS qualifiers, subject to being 14/1 or shorter in the market:

Huntingdon

2.00 Queen Of Song

3.35 Shardakhan

4.05 Jolly Boy

Inishturk

5.05 Golden Feather

To receive these newsletters, send a blank email to ttsflatback06@getresponse.com.

Best Regards
Matt Bisogno

Author, TrainerTrackStats / TrainerFlatStats

Matt Bisogno is a lifelong horseracing and betting enthusiast, and has published a number of statistical analyses of trainer patterns for horse racing betting purposes.

http://www.trainerflatstats.com/

——————–

WELCOME & CONTENTS

——————–

Hello, and welcome to your fortnightly newsletter from the

offices of TrainerTrackStats.

In this issue:

- Review since last newsletter

- Coming Next…

- System angle: Novice Hurdlers off a Layoff

- The TTS Joke…

- Tomorrow’s qualifiers

——————————

REVIEW SINCE LAST NEWSLETTER

——————————

Well, after a strong start to the season in September, its been a very tough October. However, despite wild variations in going conditions, many horses from big stables having their first runs, and a hatful of misplaced gambles, TTS followers have still recorded a small profit of £325 for the month (to £20 stakes). Overall, we’re now showing a profit of £1,137 since the tapes went up on our season. That’s equivalent to 20 times the price of the guide, or 42 months of the guest subscription. I think you’ll agree, its pretty hard to crab that value!

—————–

COMING NEXT….

—————–

As well as the opening moves of the jump season, the Breeders Cup marks the end of the international Flat racing season (with the exception of some racing in Hong Kong and Japan), and I shall be making my annual pilgrimage on Thursday morning.

I usually do very well at the meeting, having spent a good month beforehand reading up. (I’m a huge fan of the Pick 3 wager which, some of you will know, involves selecting three consecutive winners. It can pay handsome dividends and, as its only three races, it is ‘gettable’.)

However, this year, other commitments have left me with a very steep learning curve to get to grips with the runners, and my usual purchase of the excellent ‘Crushing the Cup’ guide will be keeping me awake on the flight Stateside.

The races rotate from venue to venue and are to be run at Churchill Downs, Kentucky, this year. There is a lot of European interest, perhaps headed by George Washington and David Junior in the Classic.

My advice for the Breeders’ Cup is the same as every year: bet the European’s in the Turf races. Its not rocket science, and the odds have become a little shorter since the great days of 26/1 Domedriver (Arlington, Chicago, 2002) and the like.

But it remains the case that the US turf horses are consistently overbet, and consistently outclassed by the Euro horses. You only have to look at the European history of some of their top turf horses. The likes of Aragorn, whose best UK finish last summer was 3rd in a Listed race, will surely be no match for the pick of the Euro’s, despite a string of 1’s since being sent Stateside.

At around 7/2, he is a standout lay for me. The poor thing won’t know what’s hit him when the best of British (and French and Irish) line up at the start!

Good luck if you’re playing on the BC races - let me know how you get on: enquiries@trainertrackstats.com

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SYSTEM ANGLE: 1ST TIME OUT NOV HURDLERS AFTER A LAYOFF

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There can be good money to be made from novice hurdlers.

One of my TTS subscribers wrote to me, and told me about some angles that he’d been playing with in relation to these types, and I thought I’d try to develop this further

Using the encyclopaedic database, Racing Systems Builder (the same hugely impressive database I trawl to locate the TrainerTrackStats nuggets), I got a subset of relevant information.

After playing around with these few variables for an hour or so, I ended up with the following criteria:

- Novice Hurdlers having their first run of the season.

- Haven’t run for 224 days or more (this date is not arbitrary, its the cutoff within Racing Systems Builder)

- Forecast in Racing Post to be in the 1st 3 in the betting, and 14/1 or shorter

- 5, 6 or 7 years old

YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP%

2001 27 96 28.13 3.15 3.28 1.71

2002 21 89 23.60 4.94 5.55 0.97

2003 35 112 31.25 35.99 32.13 25.06

2004 23 80 28.75 5.19 6.49 22.36

2005 21 85 24.71 12.52 14.73 6.32

____________________________________________________________

127 462 27.49 61.79 13.37 11.49

As you can see, there’s plenty of action and a small profit every year, so these are well worth following.

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THE TTS JOKE…….

———————-

A horse racing joke, which is mildly amusing…!

A champion jockey is about to enter an important race on a new horse. The horse’s trainer meets him before the race and says, “All you have to remember with this horse is that every time you approach a jump, you have to shout, ‘ALLLLEEE OOOP!’ really loudly in the horse’s ear. Providing you do that, you’ll be fine.”

The jockey thinks the trainer is mad but promises to shout the command. The race begins and they approach the first hurdle. The jockey ignores the trainer’s ridiculous advice and the horse crashes straight through the center of the jump.

They carry on and approach the second hurdle. The jockey, somewhat embarrassed, whispers “Aleeee ooop” in the horse’s ear. The same thing happens–the horse crashes straight through the center of the jump.

At the third hurdle, the jockey thinks, “It’s no good, I’ll have to do it,” and yells, “ALLLEEE OOOP!” really loudly. Sure enough, the horse sails over the jump with no problems. This continues for the rest of the race, but due to the earlier problems the horse only finishes third.

The trainer is fuming and asks the jockey what went wrong. The jockey replies, “Nothing is wrong with me–it’s this bloody horse. What is he–deaf or something?”

The trainer replies, “Deaf?? DEAF?? He’s not deaf–he’s BLIND!”

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TOMORROW’S QUALIFIERS

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The TTS runners for Wednesday, 1st November are:

Chepstow

1.00 Rowdy Yeats (PRICE WARNING)

2.45 Just For Men

Huntingdon

2.20 Handy Money

Kety Star (PRICE WARNING)

2.55 New Entic

Down’s Folly

3.30 Bonchester Bridge

Sea The Light

Note the (PRICE WARNING). These horse - like all qualifiers -

must be 14/1 or shorter to be a qualifier.

———————————————-

REMINDER / NEXT LETTER…

———————————————-

Well, that’s all for this letter. I hope you’ve enjoyed reading it.

If you’d like the statistical lowdown on which trainers perform best at which tracks, and you don’t already own a copy, you can get more information on my eguide, TrainerTrackStats at www.trainerflatstats.com

Next newsletter will be in your inbox on or around 15th November.

Finally, if you have any comments / feedback on this letter, or anything you’d like to see in future,

please email your suggestions to enquiries@trainerflatstats.com

I’ll look forward to hearing from you!

As ever, thanks for reading, and best regards

Matt Bisogno

Author, TrainerTrackStats NH 2006/7

http://www.www.trainerflatstats.com

Matt Bisogno is a lifelong horseracing and betting enthusiast, and has published a number of statistical analyses of trainer patterns for horse racing betting purposes.

——————–

WELCOME & CONTENTS

——————–

Hello, and welcome to your fortnightly newsletter from the

offices of TrainerTrackStats.

In this issue:

- Review since last newsletter

- System angle: Quick Return Chasers

- The joke…

- Tomorrow’s qualifiers

——————————

REVIEW SINCE LAST NEWSLETTER

——————————

In the last newsletter, I showed you a way to profit from the changes in going that can happen at this time of year. Well, without so much as a crystal ball, that proved to be very prescient, as the rains came recently and changed many tracks from Good to Firm, to Soft. With a plethora of non-runners, there were also many horses running on the ‘wrong’ ground for them, and a few shock results as a consequence.

Its also been a disappointing run for TTS followers. In the last newsletter’s “Tomorrow’s Qualifiers” section I tipped two winners, at 5/1 and 4/6, along with a 2nd at 12/1, from four selections. But since then, its been a war of attrition with rays of TTS sunshine few and far between.

Sunday 15th October summed it up, when Red Scally, a qualifier until his price moved from 14/1 to 16/1 two minutes before the off, outstayed the opposition to triumph. Some solace for me when some of my subscribers told me they’d backed it, but in truth, the strict interpretation of TTS dictates that I cannot record it as a win for TTS.

Looking ahead, its definitely a case of ‘onwards and upwards’ for TTS, with many of the big stables now gearing up for the season proper after a sleepy start. 11th November sees the Murphys Gold Cup meeting at Cheltenham and, from then on, its action all the way to the end of April. For TTS fans, its action from right now, as there is jump racing in the UK pretty much every day from here.

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SYSTEM ANGLE: QUICK RETURN CHASERS

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An angle that you should always be aware of when betting, is the significance of a horse making a quick comeback. I have for some time paid close attention to horses running within 3 days of a previous effort on the All Weather, and I wondered if the same principle held true for jumpers.

As ever, I put this to the test with my trusty Racing Systems Builder software (the same hugely impressive database I trawl to locate the TrainerTrackStats nuggets). After playing around with a few variables, I ended up with the following criteria:

Handicaps (Chase and Hurdles)

3-8 years old

Ran 1, 2 or 3 days ago

7/2 or less

YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP%

2001 6 17 35.29 0.99 5.82 -5.84

2002 5 15 33.33 -0.77 -5.13 10.81

2003 11 27 40.74 5.25 19.44 21.78

2004 16 34 47.06 14.06 41.35 39.25

2005 12 23 52.17 15.13 65.78 61.71

____________________________________________________________

50 116 43.10 34.66 29.88 28.05

As you can see, though there aren’t too many qualifiers, they win pretty much every other start, and are well worth following.

———————-

THE JOKE…….

———————-

Nothing to do with horse racing or winner finding but quite funny nonetheless!

(With apologies to all nerds - myself included - in advance!)

A truck driver is hauling a trailer load of computers, and stops for a beer. As he approaches the bar he sees a big sign on the door saying “Nerds Not Allowed - Enter At Your Own Risk!” He goes in and sits down. The bartender comes over to him, sniffs, says, “You smell kind of nerdy. What do you do for a living?” The truck driver says, “I drive a truck, and the smell is just from the computers I am hauling.”

The bartender says, “Okay, truck drivers are not nerds.” and serves him a beer. As he is sipping his beer, a skinny guy walks in with tape around his glasses, a pocket protector with twelve kinds of pens and pencils, and a belt at least a foot too long. The bartender, without saying a word, pulls out a shotgun and blows the guy away.

The truck driver said, totally shocked, “Why did you do that?” The bartender said, “Not to worry, the nerds are overpopulating Silicon Valley and are in season now. You don’t even need a license.” The truck driver finishes his beer, gets back in his truck, and heads back onto the freeway. Suddenly he veers to avoid an accident, and the load shifts. The back door breaks open and computers spill out all over the freeway. He jumps out and sees a crowd already forming, grabbing up the computers. They are all engineers, accountants and programmers wearing the nerdiest clothes he has ever seen.

He can’t let them steal his whole load. So, remembering what happened in the bar, he pulls out his gun and starts blasting away, felling several of them instantly. A highway patrol officer comes zooming up and jumps out of the car screaming at him to stop. The truck driver said, “What’s wrong? I thought nerds were in season.” “Well, sure,” said the patrolman. “But you can’t bait ‘em.”

———————————————-

TOMORROW’S QUALIFIERS

———————————————-

The TTS runners for Thursday, 19th October are:

Haydock

2.40 Flake

3.40 In Extra Time (PRICE WARNING)

4.40 Rival Bidder

Sea Wall (DOUBTFUL RUNNER)

Ludlow

2.50 Cannon Fire

Note the (PRICE WARNING). These horse - like all qualifiers -

must be 14/1 or shorter to be a qualifier.

———————————————-

REMINDER / NEXT LETTER…

———————————————-

Well, that’s about all for this letter. I hope you’ve enjoyed it. Before I close, I’d like to take the opportunity to remind those of you who have yet to subscribe that I now have a daily email subscription service for TrainerTrackStats, giving you all the following day’s selections the night before. Better still, you can take a FREE trial for a week before having to invest a penny of your ‘hard earned’.

For more information, go to www.trainerflatstats.com/subscribe

Next newsletter will be in your inbox on or around 31st October.

Finally, if you have any comments / feedback on this letter, or anything you’d like to see in future,

please email your suggestions to enquiries@trainerflatstats.com

I’ll look forward to hearing from you!

As ever, thanks for reading, and best regards

Matt Bisogno

Author, TrainerTrackStats NH 2006/7

http://www.www.trainerflatstats.com

Matt Bisogno is a lifelong horseracing and betting enthusiast, and has published a number of statistical analyses of trainer patterns for horse racing betting purposes.

——————–

WELCOME & CONTENTS

——————–

Hello, and welcome to your fortnightly newsletter from the

offices of TrainerTrackStats.

In this issue:

- Review of last newsletter

- System angle: Going Change Winners

- A joke…

- Tomorrow’s qualifiers

—————————

REVIEW OF LAST NEWSLETTER

—————————

The last newsletter I sent was actually the first. And what a result!

As well as providing a lucrative system angle, we also looked at why it pays to be wary of short-priced high class horses having their seasonal debut.

A classic case in point was Champion Hurdle runner up, Harchibald, who had his first run of the season on Sunday at Tipperary. Having opened at 1-4, the horse drifted to 2-7, then 1-3. This is normally a sign that a horse is ‘carrying condition’ (as mentioned last time, this is trainerspeak for ‘not fit’).

Sure enough, ‘Harchie’ was going best of all with a quarter mile to run, but found absolutely nothing when asked to make his effort. He finished fourth of five, and the aroma of burnt fingers could be sniffed across the Emerald Isle. There’ll be a good few more high profile, long odds-on defeats before October is through. You have been warned…!

Also, in the last newsletter, I started what is to be a regular feature in the letter: Tomorrow’s Qualifiers. This is where I give you an insight into the wonderful world of Trainer Track Stats.

And how!

On a never-to-be-repeated day, out of nine selections, eight were winners, including 10/1 and 12/1 horses. The only horse not to win was placed 3rd at 12/1, in the same race that we had the 4/1 winner!!

You’ll find tomorrow’s qualifiers at the bottom of this letter.

———————————————————————–

SYSTEM ANGLE: GOING CHANGE WINNERS

———————————————————

Its the time of year when Autumn starts to blow into Winter, and the wind and rain changes the going conditions almost daily. In short, its a tough time to be a punter. So, I sought to answer the question,

How can we use this inclement weather to our advantage?.

One of the things that struck me was,

What if a horse had previously won on today’s going, but was beaten last time out on markedly different ground?

Well, I put this to the test with my trusty Racing Systems Builder software (the same hugely impressive database I trawl to locate the TrainerTrackStats nuggets). I used my usual 14/1 or less condition, and also restricted it to novice races. This is what I learnt if today’s going was two or more types quicker or slower than last time out:

YEAR WINS RUNS STRIKE% LSP LSP% VSP%

2001 20 69 28.99 3.17 4.59 7.69

2002 16 58 27.59 -5.40 -9.31 4.52

2003 16 39 41.03 38.00 97.44 43.29

2004 22 70 31.43 3.85 5.50 21.15

2005 16 55 29.09 0.95 1.73 6.21

____________________________________________________________

90 291 30.93 40.57 13.94 15.23

As you can see, there are some great opportunities to find value here…

———————-

A JOKE…….

———————-

Nothing to do with horse racing or winner finding but very

funny nonetheless!

A man walks into a dentists’ surgery, and says, You’ve got to help me, I think I’m a moth.

The dentist replies, You don’t need a dentist, you need a psychiatrist.

The man says, I know.

The dentist, somewhat bemused, says, So what are you doing here?!

Grinning, the man replies, The light was on!

———————————————-

TOMORROW’S QUALIFIERS

———————————————-

Exeter 2.10 Brochrua

Exeter 3.10 Boychuk

Exeter 4.40 Grave Doubts

Towces 3.00 Sexy Rexy (PRICE WARNING)

Note the (PRICE WARNING). This horse - like all qualifiers -

must be 14/1 or shorter to be a qualifier.

———————————————-

REMINDER / NEXT LETTER…

———————————————-

Well, that’s about all for this letter. I hope you’ve enjoyed it. Before I close, I’d like to take the opportunity to remind those of you

who have yet to subscribe that I now have a daily email subscription service for TrainerTrackStats, giving you all the following day’s selections the night before.

For more information, go to www.trainertrackstats.com/subscribe

Next newsletter will be in your inbox on or around 17th October.

Finally, if you have any comments / feedback on this letter, or anything you’d like to see in future,

please email your suggestions to enquiries@trainerflatstats.com

I’ll look forward to hearing from you!

Thanks for reading, and best regards

Matt Bisogno

Author, TrainerTrackStats NH 2006/7

http://www.www.trainerflatstats.com

Matt Bisogno is a lifelong horseracing and betting enthusiast, and has published a number of statistical analyses of trainer patterns for horse racing betting purposes.

This is the third installment in a series of articles on profitable betting through sensible money management. So far, I have discussed the importance of getting value when you bet, to maximise the returns you achieve when your selections win. In the most recent article you should have learned to keep your stakes in proportion to the size of your betting bank.

Today I want to examine a common mistake that often gets punters into serious trouble – chasing your losses.

I don’t think there can be many of us who have not at some time, decided to get back what we just lost by betting a little bigger on the next race. It is sometimes known as progressive staking.

Let’s take a simple scenario: you bet £10 on Red Rum, and he loses. What do you do? Perhaps you continue with your selection methods and come up with another pick in the next race – Best Mate. The price is 6/4F

But, rather than putting another £10 bet on Best Mate, you decide to ‘chase’ your loss from the last race. You add another £7 to your stake so that when Best Mate wins you will pick up an extra £10.50 to recover the bet you lost on Red Rum. Good plan? Could be, after all Best Mate is a sure fire winner, right? May be. May be not!

What happens if Best Mate loses? You are now £27 ‘in the hole’. But you still have a plan. Your next selection is a dead cert winner at Even money. You place your usual £10 stake plus an extra £27 to cover your losses so far. No need to worry. When this one comes in, you will have re-couped your losses and have a £10 profit to show as well.

Let’s take a step back here. You are staking £37 to win a £10 profit. Think about it – you are effectively getting odds of only around 1 to 4 odds-on about a horse that is Even money in the market. That is terrible value!

You may escape this time and your horse may well win. But what if, heaven forbid, your red-hot even money favourite fails to win? After just three bets, you are down to the tune of £64 when your normal stake is just a tenner!

Long losing runs do occur, more frequently than you might think, and even with short-priced selections.

If you spent a day in a casino at the roulette tables, and analysed how many times you witnessed a run of 7 or 8 consecutive ‘red’ numbers, I would not be at all surprised if you saw this happen four or five times – in a single day. Here we have pretty much a 50/50 bet, even money, that the roulette ball will land in either a red or a black slot. Yet I was amazed to learn that the longest run of the same colour (reported) was THIRTY-NINE consecutive reds!!

Imagine if you were betting on black, and saying to yourself each time “no worries, it’s got to be black next time…. Surely?”

But let’s go back to the more common occurrence of a losing run of 7 even money bets. We will be betting on the red.

We place a £1 bet on the first spin. It’s black. We chase our loss by ‘doubling up’ and next bet £2. If we were to carry on in this manner, after 6 spins we would be betting £64 to win our original £1

I sincerely hope my point is getting across. By chasing your losses you can very quickly see your stakes climbing to preposterous levels, to win your original, relatively small stake. The risk is way out of proportion compared to the potential reward.

One last example to really ram the point home. The Racing Post runs a tipster competition. All the leading racing journalists are involved, representing the nation’s newspapers and horse racing publications. These are experts at tipping horses. Take a look at the results table any day, and see for yourself the longest losing run. Remember, these are the experts.

I looked today, and Racing Post PostData has suffered this season a losing run of twenty-seven. Twenty-seven consecutive losers from an expert tipster! And believe me, he is not on his own, just the worst offender this season so far.

There is an old saying – “Don’t throw good money after bad”. If your selections don’t make a profit from simple level stakes betting, don’t try and make them profitable by throwing more money at them. You may survive with a profit for a while, but this approach is a disaster waiting to happen. Sooner or later you WILL blow your entire bank chasing a disproportionately small profit.

If your selections don’t make a profit from simple level stakes betting, change your system.

About the author: Max Redd has been making a living betting on horse racing for over 10 years. He runs the Redd Racing betting advisory service which offers members a FREE trial and a 60-day money-back profit guarantee. Find out more at http://www.reddracing.co.uk

If you want a short and fast rule for succeeding in betting on horses as an investment, it is this: find out what the majority of people do and then do the exact opposite! The majority of punters are simply there to kick money onto the pot for the professionals to take home at the end of each race day.

I’m going to outline the major characteristics of long term losing punters. Take careful note and do the opposite:

1. They don’t have a plan

There is a well known saying: “fail to plan and you plan to fail”. A punter without a plan is like a ship without a rudder. In racing a good plan means identifying the amount of money you would like to make over a pre-determined period of time and then breaking that goal down into monthly or weekly targets. Without a plan you have no way of measuring your success and lay yourself open to a loss of betting discipline and the likely losses that that will bring.

2. They don’t have enough patience

Losing punters are looking to make a killing in one day. This can happen every now and again but it won’t happen consistently. Adopting this approach using whatever spurious criteria – lucky numbers, betting only on horses with astronomical dividends – is a guaranteed way to empty your pockets. Disciplined investors look for smaller daily returns which they compound (by gradually increasing the size of their betting bank) over a number of months and then years.

3. They aren’t consistent

Losing runs are part of every profitable betting system. Successful betting investors will work through these because they know a winning run will be just around the corner. A losing punter however may abandon a profitable system after a few losing days, robbing himself of an income stream that could go well into the future. This point is closely related to point 1: work the plan and be secure in the knowledge that losing runs will be part of that plan. Consistent and constant action is the hallmark of long term profitability.

4. They are too greedy

Have positive expectations of high returns but don’t confuse this with getting greedy. There are two common scenarios for the losing punter: he will be having a successful day but then abandons his plan to go for the big score which can often erode or completely eliminate his gains made earlier in the day OR he’s having a losing day and tries to recoup his losses on the same day. This “throwing good money after bad” is the single worst trait of a losing punter. As a professional investor you need to stay away from it at all costs.

5. They are ill disciplined

Having a plan, patience, being consistent and keeping your greed in check all amount to nothing unless you adhere to each of these facets strictly. The professional investment better will stick strictly to is rules and not stray from them. The law is simple: if it works, do not change it! The temptation will come to have a flutter on a horse with positive media coverage or surrounded by favourable rumours and betting a few dollars on such horses is OK but don’t lose sight of your main objective – making consistent profits using the rules outlined in your betting plan.

That’s all of them. Irrespective of which betting plan you end up adopting, make sure you avoid the pitfalls outlined above. As a final word, grant a small blessing to the habitual losing punters: the more there is of them, the easier it is for the rest of us to make more money!

It is a well known fact that that 97% of punters betting on any particular event are simply there to kick money into a pot which the remaining 3% of punters will stuff into their pocket at race day’s end. To learn how you can be one of the 3% of successful investors who make an easy living from href="http://www.bet-on-horse.com" target="_top">betting on horses go to
href="http://www.bet-on-horse.com" target="_top">Profitable Horse Betting Systems that have been proven to work

You know it’s funny.

The racing industry presents one of the best opportunities going to earn a substantial return on investment yet because of the “mindset” that most people take to the track it is hardly ever realised.

Not that I’m knocking having a punt: Heading to the racetrack on a Saturday afternoon with a few mates to have a few beers and place a few bets can be a fun way to spend your money.

But I’m guessing that if you’re reading this article, then you’re interested in more than just gambling. You actually want to put a system in place that allows you to earn a consistent income from betting on horse racing.

Well it certainly can be done but to succeed there is a vital element you simply have to put in place first:

YOU NEED TO APPROACH BETTING ON HORSE RACES AS AN INVESTOR RATHER THAN AS A GAMBLER

Let’s look at the difference between the two:

1. An investor has a principal amount of money and he is looking for a consistent return on that principal over an extended period of time. A gambler has an amount of money which he is looking for an immediate return on each and every time. The investor views time as a friend, not an enemy.

2. An investor regards his principle as sacred and will only risk a small percentage of that principle on any given opportunity. A gambler has no real respect for his money and has already (sub-consciously at least) earmarked that money to be lost.

3. An investor has a pre-defined plan for getting a return on his money and will work that plan to achieve his desired outcome. A gambler usually has no plan at all or chops and changes his plans as he goes along.

4. An investor expects that he will have losses along the way and doesn’t panic when they occur. A gambler panics if he experiences a loss and tries to recoup that loss straight away.

Or to summarise – an investor employs a “business” mindset rather than a “recreational” or worse still “desperate” mindset.

If we look at what investors consider to be good return in other industries: top share fund managers are considered geniuses if they can manage consistent 15% per annum returns; real estate investors are more than happy with a 10% per annum return over the life of their investment; it boggles the mind to consider the opportunity that gamblers throw away when betting on horses.

The fact of the matter is that with a disciplined approach and good money management – a 15-20% return per month is quite easily achieved by betting on horses and all the profits are tax free!

It is a well known fact that that 97% of punters betting on any particular event are simply there to kick money into a pot which the remaining 3% of punters will stuff into their pocket at race day’s end. To learn how you can be one of the 3% of successful investors who make an easy living from href="http://www.bet-on-horse.com" target="_top">betting on horses go to
href="http://www.bet-on-horse.com" target="_top">Profitable Horse Betting Systems that have been proven to work